Burnaby Municipal Election Poll: Corrigan in tight race with challenger Hurley
Calgary/Vancouver (5 October 2018) – Incumbent and five-term mayor, Derek Corrigan, is locked in tight race with first-time candidate, Mike Hurley, according to a commissioned poll by the International Association of FireFighters undertaken by zinc tank in partnership with Justason Market Intelligence and Dufferin Research.
Corrigan and Hurley appear to be in a virtual tie – 43% and 42%, respectively – among committed and decided voters (estimated to be 52% of Burnaby residents, 18 years+). This includes their support – there are few differences in terms of demographics (i.e., by age and gender).
“This close race is favourable for first-time mayoral candidate Hurley when you get behind the traditional horse-race numbers,” stated Brian F. Singh, President & CEO, zinc tank. “Corrigan remains well-regarded in his performance in his role of mayor, however his favourability ratings are relatively lower than Hurley, and there is an appetite for change.”
Corrigan continues to enjoy a high level of awareness relative to Hurley (71% versus 44% have sort of impression of the candidates). However, among those who have an impression of either candidate, Hurley has a significantly higher net favourability rating (very/somewhat favourable minus very/somewhat unfavourable) of +48 percentage points versus +4 for Corrigan among decided and committed voters. “It appears that as voters get know Hurley, in his first run for the top job at City Hall, voters consider him more favourably relative to the incumbent,” added Singh.
While Corrigan is well-regarded to be elected for five terms, there is an appetite for change: 3 in 5 decided and committed voters (59%) agreed that it is time for a change and to give someone else a chance to be Mayor of Burnaby.
Singh added, “With just over two weeks to go, this is poised to be an interesting election.”
View the data tables here: https://www.web-research-online.com/media/burnaby-mep.html
Slides available here: https://www.web-research-online.com/media/BurnabyMayoralPoll-October5-2018.pdf
Research Notes
These are the findings of a mixed-mode survey of 645 adult residents (18 years+) of the City of Burnaby. The survey was conducted for the International Association of FireFighters by zinc tank in partnership with Justason Market Intelligence and Dufferin Research. Zinc tank and Justason Marketing Intelligence teamed up during 2017 British Columbia provincial election, and their collective insights delivered some of the most accurate findings and they were unique in the use of mixed-mode data collection.
This poll used a mixed mode methodology of automatic telephone interviews and online surveys. The telephone research relied on random digit dialled (RDD) automatic telephone interviews. The sample frame included listed and unlisted landlines and mobile phone numbers. The online sample source includes panels from Asking Canadians and Justason Market Intelligence. The final combined weighted sample reflects the actual population demographics. These data rely in part on a non-probability weighted sample; hence, no margin of error is reported. Metro Vancouver has higher-than-average penetration of mobile internet access. Broadband internet access exceeds landline usage. Mixed mode methodology was selected to mitigate the biases presented via automatic telephone interviews (that skew older), pre-screened online panel (that skews middle-aged and younger), and challenges of targeting a restricted geography (i.e., the City of Burnaby).
Dates of research: September 28 to October 3, 2018
Methodology: Mixed mode - Automatic landline and cellphone and online panel.
Total Sample: 645 – 450 automated calls (landline/cell phone); 195 online panel.
Weighting: Final data were weighted to match gender and age distributions according to the 2016 Canadian Census. Note, discrepancy in weighted/unweighted data due to lack of actual data related to non-binary populations. (Source: https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2016/dp-pd/prof/details/page.cfm?Lang=E&Geo1=CSD&Code1=5915025&Geo2=CD&Code2=5915&Data=Count&SearchText=Burnaby&SearchType=Begins&SearchPR=01&B1=All&TABID=1). Note, the population has remained relatively stable between 2011 and 2016, and the mean age of voters is 47 years.
Margin of error: This research does not report margin of error. A pure unweighted probability sample of 645 reports margin of error at ±3.85 percentage points most (95 per cent) of the time.
Research Sponsors: International Association of FireFighters (https://client.prod.iaff.org/).
Polling Firm & Partners: zinc tank (http://www.zinc-tank.com/) with Justason Market Intelligence Inc. (http://www.justasonmi.com/) and Dufferin Research (https://www.dufferinresearch.com/).
Panel Providers: Asking Canadians (https://www.askingcanadians.com/) and Justason Market Intelligence Inc. (http://www.justasonmi.com/).
For more information contact:
Brian F. Singh, zinc tank
+1 403 861 9462 / This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. / zinc-tank.com
Barb Justason, Justason Market Intelligence Inc.
+1 604 783 4165 / This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. / JMI.co
